Just 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were a sign or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team which has put together 10 in a row, they appear weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus United.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
