Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
